Nhi Nguyen
It isn’t hard to notice the extreme weather changes in recent times. Here, in Brisbane, we recently experienced heavy downpours of rain and hail, followed by scorching heat close to 40 degree the day after in October.
Between 2006 and 2017, heatwaves were responsible for about 36,000 deaths – more than all other extreme weather events in Australia. Worldwide, 489,000 heat-related deaths happen each year between 2000 and 2019.
We are experiencing the consequences of climate change. The question is, how bad will it get in the future?
The Australian National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) was released on September 15. According to the report, the global warming level is above the pre-industrial temperature – currently at +1.2°C. However, the Earth has already reached an average of +1.5°C previously for a 12-month period, from February 2023 to January 2024.
If this happened before, it can happen again. The report adds that days with severe or extreme heatwaves will increase anywhere from double to quadruple from what it is now. The number of heatwave days will dramatically increase, as will drought. This means the bushfire risk will also increase, with a longer fire season and high potential for megafires. The report also predicts that sea levels will continue to rise, which means frequent coastal floods and 10 times more frequent levels of coastal erosion, threatening ecosystems.
All of this will have a negative effect on health. The severity of heatwaves, floods, bushfires, and droughts will lead to an increase in mortality and morbidity, placing additional pressure on the healthcare system.
NCRA adds that increased sea levels will damage coastal infrastructure and communities, placing 597,000 at direct risk by 2030. Remote communities, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who already experience adverse climate impacts are particularly vulnerable. The estimated climate risks will only exacerbate their already existing health and social disparities.
The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) was released on the same day as NCRA, aiming to address these risks. At first glance, the NAP seems promising, with a clear outline of responsibilities across governments, industry, business, households and community organisations.
But questions remain. How will any of this be enforced? How will the government ensure accountability? How will this be funded? How can we reduce damage from climate change?
The 2035 Australian Government Targets Advice outlines an emission target of 62 – 70%, which represents Australia’s highest possible, and achievable ambition. This recommendation has not been met positively. Australian Council of Social Service considered the target to be weak and lacking, saying that 75% could have been the minimum. The Doctors for the Environment Australia agrees that the target fails to address the scale of the problem Australia is facing. The Australian Conservation Foundation said the target was ‘timid’ and falls significantly short on all measures. Australia Climate Council suggested that Australia should get as close to net zero by 2035 as possible.
Seeing Australia is still approving new coal and gas projects in the wake of the NCRA release, we should be doing more to surpass 70% by 2035. The Australian Government has allocated a net total of US$ 10.8 billion in fossil fuel subsidies in 2023 alone. It feels as though only individuals are encouraged to fight back against climate change, while measures are rarely in place to hold corporations and industries accountable.
Although the 2035 Target Advice and NAP are in place to address climate change damage, they may be falling short of what is needed.
However, with every negative climate news, comes some positive news. News about the increasing use of renewable energies, about endangered species recovering, and about various communities and organisations coming together to advocate for better measures, fill me with hope. It reminds me that this is a cause worth fighting for.
Image: Mika Baumeister, Unsplash
Nhi Nguyen is a PHAA intern and a Master of Public Health student at the University of Queensland.
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